Forecast & Scenario Dashboard
Build a management forecast model with Base, Upside and Downside scenarios, monthly variance analysis and a decision-focused dashboard.
Advanced · 90–120 min
Objectives
- Build scenario assumptions
- Create monthly forecast formulas
- Calculate variance vs actual
- Use a combo/trend chart
- Write management commentary
Project dataset
| Row | A: Month | B: Actual | C: Base Forecast | D: Upside % | E: Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jan | 920000 | 950000 | 8% | -10% |
| 3 | Feb | 980000 | 1000000 | 8% | -10% |
| 4 | Mar | 1010000 | 1040000 | 8% | -10% |
| 5 | Apr | 1080000 | 1100000 | 8% | -10% |
| 6 | May | 1115000 | 1140000 | 8% | -10% |
| 7 | Jun | 1170000 | 1200000 | 8% | -10% |
Guided checkpoints
Define scenario assumptions
Keep Base Forecast, Upside % and Downside % assumptions separate from actuals.
Separate inputs from outputs.
Build upside forecast
Calculate Base Forecast × (1 + Upside %) for each month.
Translate an assumption into a scenario output.
Build downside forecast
Calculate Base Forecast × (1 + Downside %) for each month.
Model a negative scenario consistently.
Calculate actual variance
Calculate Actual minus Base Forecast and variance %.
Measure forecast accuracy.
Design the chart
Use a line chart for Actual/Base/Scenario trends and KPI cards for current variance.
Communicate scenario movement clearly.
Write the decision
State whether management should plan to Base, Upside or Downside and cite the variance evidence.
Turn a model into a decision.
Download sample project .xlsx · All portfolio projects
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